kerkko.fi

 

The Fragile Empire

Great powers are complex systems, made up of a very large number of interacting components that are asymmetrically organized. They operate somewhere between order and disorder. Such systems can appear to operate quite stably for some time; they seem to be in equilibrium but are, in fact, constantly adapting. But there comes a moment when complex systems "go critical." A very small trigger can set off a "phase transition" from a benign equilibrium to a crisis.

Historians often misunderstand complexity; they are trained to explain calamity in terms of long-term causes. In reality, most of the "fat-tail" phenomena that historians study are not the climaxes of prolonged and deterministic story lines; instead, they represent perturbations, and sometimes the complete breakdowns, of complex systems. A small input to such a system can produce huge, often unanticipated changes -- what scientists call "the amplifier effect."

When things go wrong in a complex system, the scale of disruption is nearly impossible to anticipate. One day, a seemingly random piece of bad news will make the headlines. Suddenly, it will be not just a few policy wonks who worry but the public at large. This shift is crucial: A complex system is in big trouble when its component parts lose faith in its viability. Empires function in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period. And then, quite abruptly, they collapse.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-ferguson28-2010feb28,0,7706980.story

Filed under: America Crisis Empire History Imperialism USA
 

Editor & Publisher to be shut down

Editor & Publisher will cease publication after 125 years in the business. The Nielson Co. will shut down both the print and online versions of the publication at the end of the year.

In an article about its own demise, Editor & Publisher said staff has been inundated with calls from members of the industry it covers, and many others, expressing shock and hopes for a revival.

The magazine version of Editor & Publisher, "America's Oldest Journal Covering the Newspaper Industry," was launched in 1901, but has roots back to 1884 with its original publication, The Journalist.

http://www.editorsweblog.org/newspaper/2009/12/editor_publisher_shut_down_after_125_yea.php

Filed under: Crisis Editor & Publisher Transformation
11
To Posterous, Love Metalab
statistics for vBulletin